France's Political Permacrisis: The Dawn of a Fresh Governmental Reality

Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as British prime minister, he was the fifth British prime minister to take up the position over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is unfolding in France, now on its fifth prime minister in 24 months – three of them in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on Tuesday, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in return for opposition Socialist votes as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, in the best case, a short-term solution. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a ongoing governmental crisis, the scale of which it has not experienced for decades – possibly not since the start of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no simple way out.

Governing Without a Majority

Key background: ever since Macron initiated an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament split into three opposing factions – the left, far right and his own centrist coalition – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now almost twice the EU threshold, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are approaching.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In September, the leader named his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from allies and opponents alike.

So much so that the following day, he stepped down. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a respectful address, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

A further unexpected development: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for two more days in a last-ditch effort to secure multi-party support – a mission, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers openly criticized the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down any and every new government unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he appeared on television to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The president’s office announced the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron kept his promise – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron commenting from the wings that the nation's opposing groups were “creating discord” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the 39-year-old PM spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, by no means certain to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS explicitly warned that it would be demanding further compromises. “This move,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

A Cultural Shift

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how difficult his mission – and longer-term survival – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in 24 months is, like his predecessors, finished.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by some miracle, the divided parliament summons up the collective responsibility to pass a budget by year-end, the prospects for the government beyond that look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would confront identical numerical challenges.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to step down. After winning the presidential election, his successor would dissolve parliament and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Polls suggest the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that France’s voters, having chosen a far-right leader, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

In the end, France may not escape its predicament until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that transformation will not be possible under the existing governmental framework. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the formation of ruling alliances common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”