A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
