Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”