Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Multiple members on the party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
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